Financial analysts share bullish live forecast

New York-headquartered financial services specialist and investment bank TD Cowen says the live music business is better placed than most to weather the current global economic uncertainty.

In their latest music earnings preview, published this week, analysts Doug Creutz and Mei Lun Quach stated that music’s “high value/price proposition” gave it resilience in times of financial turbulence, “particularly compared to other entertainment options”.

“We generally view the music industry as being attractively defensive given the currently overly dynamic political/economic situation,” they wrote.

“Historically, the live music business has also been resilient during recessions, we think again due to audience affinities to music and also because concerts are ‘time-limited’ events.”

Consequently, as per MBW, the analysts say Live Nation’s fundamentals “generally have less risk than the average business that depends on discretionary spending”.

“2025 is expected to be a big year for stadium concerts, and Live Nation should benefit with accelerated growth”

Rating Live Nation as a “buy”, they conclude: “2025 is expected to be a big year for stadium concerts, and Live Nation should benefit with accelerated growth.”

Speaking to IQ earlier this month, economist Chris Carey of Media Insight Consulting queried whether live music should still be considered “recession-proof”, having previously “played the role of an affordable luxury and a suitable substitute for larger spend”.

“The likelihood is that times have changed,” he said. “When you consider the pricing at the top end of the live music market now it means that the biggest live music tickets have actually moved into that luxury category, so won’t feel the boost of displaced spend. And it’s not just the ticket cost, but the cost of the whole event that exaggerates the impact.

“Importantly, that isn’t to say that demand for these exceptional moments won’t be met – talent remains rare, oversubscribed and unmissable – but the old assumption that live music market at large will see any sort of a boost from an economic downturn is likely to be obsolete in 2025.”

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